Republican Vivek Ramaswamy has lost his lead over Democrat Dr. Amy Acton in two prediction markets as Ohio's closely fought governor's race enters its final stretch. At the time of writing, Polymarket put Acton's chance of victory at 54 percent and Ramaswamy's at 47 percent, while Kalshi showed Acton ahead with 55 percent to 45 percent.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket had priced the contest as essentially even only days before August 24, when traders moved sharply toward Acton. This reversal raises the prospect of a genuine contest for an open governor's office in a state President Donald Trump carried by 11.2 percentage points in 2024. Newsweek contacted the Ramaswamy and Acton campaigns for comment via website contact form and email, respectively, on Friday morning.
Ohio has moved firmly toward Republicans in presidential elections, but the contest to succeed term-limited GOP Governor Mike DeWine tests whether that realignment extends to a polarizing open-seat race. Acton's competitiveness also means both parties may need to devote money and organizational resources to a state Republicans might once have expected to defend comfortably. Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to an election result, turning prices into implied probabilities that can absorb new information faster than conventional polling.
They can be useful as a live measure of informed sentiment, but thin trading, large transactions and rapidly changing prices mean they should not be treated as forecasts or polls. Polymarket's August 28 snapshot priced Acton at 54 percent and Ramaswamy at 47 percent on about $173,000 in volume. The market resolves according to the winner of the election, using calls from the , Fox News and NBC or, if necessary, Ohio's official certification.
Kalshi placed Acton at 55 percent and Ramaswamy at 45 percent, on almost $1.4 million traded. A Fox News poll conducted August 6 to 10 among 1,008 registered voters put Ramaswamy ahead, 50 percent to 48 percent. The survey, jointly directed by Democratic firm Beacon Research and Republican firm Shaw & Company Research, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, making the result statistically inconclusive.
Tulchin Research found Acton leading 46 percent to 44 percent in a survey sponsored by John Kulewicz, the Democratic candidate for Ohio attorney general. The survey, conducted July 29 to August 4 among 660 likely voters, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. A New York Times/Siena College poll of 601 likely voters, conducted June 15 to 28, had the candidates tied at 47 percent.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
