Voter turnout in Florida appears to be more friendly to Democrats this year than in 2022 or 2024, though Republicans still had an edge as of Tuesday afternoon, just hours before polls closed. Democrats are hoping to make a comeback this year in Florida, a former battleground that has shifted toward Republicans over the past decade, backing President Donald Trump by double digits. Democrats hope that a favorable national environment, fueled by Trump’s declining approval numbers, as well as a reversion among Hispanic voters who swung toward the GOP in recent cycles, could help them regain ground.
The voter turnout data may have important implications for the Florida gubernatorial and Senate races, as well as several House races that are seen as competitive on Election Day. Republican Senator Ashley Moody is facing a challenge from Democratic state legislator Angie Nixon in a race that the Cook Political Report shifted from Safe to Likely Republican in the final days of the campaign. In the gubernatorial contest, Republican Representative Byron Donalds and Democratic former Representative David Jolly are running to succeed GOP Governor Ron DeSantis.
Newsweek reached out to the Donalds, Jolly, Moody and Nixon campaigns for comment via email. ET, Republicans led Democrats by about 7.4 points among early and Election Day turnout, according to FreshTake, a news source run by the University of Florida that compiles turnout data from each Florida county. It found that 2,518,340 of voters who have turned out so far identify as Democrats, and 3,044,940 identify as Republicans.
An additional 1,622,207 voters identify with neither party. The turnout data is important but is not necessarily the only metric that matters. How those independent voters swing, and whether a candidate is able to make significant inroads with voters from the opposite party, could be key to the eventual outcome of the races in Florida.
The turnout data could also change throughout the evening. Dave Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst for the Cook Political Report, described the turnout data as pointing to a “modest but clear” enthusiasm among Democrats. He noted that it marks a leftward shift from 2024, when the final advantage was about 11.1 points for Republicans in Florida.
This is a breaking news article. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Dave Siminoff.
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