Wall Street Says the Stock Market's Return Will Crush the Long-Term Average in the Next Year

More than 5,500 companies were listed on U.S. stock exchanges as of Q1 2026, according to the Security Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA). Those stocks are grouped into different indexes that track various aspects of the domestic market. The three most widely followed indexes are the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI).

But the S&P 500 is generally considered the best gauge for the overall U.S. market. This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia.

For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue » Read on to learn how the S&P 500 performed during the past 20 years, and what Wall Street expects from the index in the next year. The S&P 500 was created in March 1957.

The index is generally viewed as the best gauge for the U.S. stock market because it tracks 500 large companies, including value stocks and growth stocks from every market sector, that account for more than 80% of domestic equities by market capitalization. Which stocks are included is ultimately at the discretion of a selection committee, but no company can be considered unless it meets certain eligibility criteria. That includes GAAP profitability during the past four quarters, a sufficiently liquid stock, and a minimum market capitalization of $22.7 billion.

The index is updated during quarterly rebalancing events, which happen on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. Marvell Technology and Flex joined the index in June. But companies can be added at any time.

Reddit will join the index later this month to replace AvalonBay Communities, which is being acquired by Equity Residential. The S&P 500 is most heavily weighted toward technology stocks. The 10 largest positions in the index are, as listed by weight: Excluding dividends, the S&P 500 advanced 515% (9.5% annually) in the past two decades.