This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: Nowhere in the Iberian Peninsula or the Balearic Islands has a tropical climate—for this to be the case, the average temperature in the coldest month would have to be 18°C (64 degrees Fahrenheit) or higher. The contrast between Spain's winters and summers, and the low temperatures reached in winter, do not resemble those of any tropical climate.
However, over recent decades, climates across the Mediterranean basin have begun to show signs of tropicalization: the process of transitioning toward a tropical climate. This is evident in several areas, including rising air and sea temperatures, shifting atmospheric patterns, and increasingly erratic rainfall. First, a marked rise in air temperature—more pronounced than the global average—is making the Mediterranean's winters shorter and its summers longer, bringing spring forward and delaying the onset of autumn.
Some people believe that these transitional seasons have all but disappeared. They do still exist, but they have moved on the calendar. The temperature of shallow and deep Mediterranean water—down to a depth of around 100m (328 feet)—has also risen markedly.
These are clear, statistically significant trends. Water temperatures to the south of Mallorca exceeded 30°C (86 degrees Fahrenheit) on some days in recent summers. These temperatures are similar to, or even higher than, those found in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.
The Northern Hemisphere's major wind belts and pressure systems, and the belt of tropical and subtropical high-pressure systems to the south of the Mediterranean basin—which cause the existence of the Sahara and other deserts at a similar latitude—all appear to be moving northward. This is because of the expansion of the Hadley cell, a global-scale tropical atmospheric circulation that governs weather patterns at equatorial and tropical latitudes. If this trend becomes established, it will increase atmospheric stability in the Mediterranean region.
Rainfall would become less regular in the region, with long dry spells punctuated by heavy downpours. Warm waters are one of the necessary ingredients for a hurricane to form and grow. Rising sea temperatures will therefore expand the areas of the ocean where such a phenomenon can potentially form.
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