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Was Carnell Tate worth the No. 4 pick? What history says about expectations for the 2026 first-round WRs

Was Carnell Tate worth the No. 4 pick? What history says about expectations for the 2026 first-round WRs

cbssports.com 10.09.2026 13:00 20 views
Recent history shows top-10 wide receivers average 767 yards as rookies, raising the bar for Carnell Tate after the Titans invested the No. 4 pick in the Ohio State standout

The Titans took Carnell Tate fourth overall, ahead of everybody not named Fernando Mendoza, David Bailey and Jeremiyah Love. That's the kind of draft capital that changes the question. Nobody is wondering whether Tate was a good prospect or belonged in the top half of the first round; Tennessee, however, decided he was valuable enough to pass on virtually everybody else in the class.

So what should the Titans expect in return? Tate's final Ohio State season offered plenty of reasons to believe the answer could be "a lot." He averaged 3.02 yards per route (49th percentile among recent first-round WRs going back to 2015), earned an 89.0 receiving grade (69th), didn't drop a pass (best in the group) and caught 85.7% of his contested targets (94th) while doing nearly 89% of his work outside (90th). Those are the kind of numbers that get a receiver drafted early.

But there was one part of Tate's resume that didn't mirror many of the receivers we've seen go this high: Ohio State's passing game never completely ran through him. Tate commanded just 17.0% of the targets and 23.3% of the receiving yards in his final season. There is, of course, a very good reason: Jeremiah Smith, who could be the next coming of Ja'Marr Chase in terms of productivity once he gets to the NFL.

That's what makes Tate such an interesting No. 4 pick. Tennessee wasn't drafting the most dominant receiver in college football; it was drafting the route-running, ball skills and consistency and trusting that they would hold up once the workload increased and he was no longer sharing targets with Smith. And history gives us a pretty good idea of how high the expectations should be.

There haven't been many receivers drafted in the top-5 in recent years, so we're working with a small sample. In fact, from 2015 through 2025, four fit the bill: Amari Cooper at No. 4 in 2015, Corey Davis at No. 5 in 2017, Ja'Marr Chase at No. 5 in 2021 and Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 4 in 2024. Travis Hunter also went second overall in 2025, but he's left out here for a simple reason: Jacksonville wasn't drafting a traditional wide receiver, and Hunter's value included what he could do primarily at cornerback, in addition to his electric receiving and return skills.

The rookie returns from the four conventional top-5 receivers? They were all over the place. On average, those four produced 946 receiving yards, 62 catches and 6.8 touchdowns as rookies.

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