Progress isn't linear for any prospect, but that's especially true for pitchers. Injuries are just a fact of life when it comes to young pitchers, and guys will occasionally go through stretches where they just completely lose the ability to throw strikes or lose their feel for certain pitches even when healthy. In Andrew Painter's case, it was a bit of an all-of-the-above situation.
His career was derailed by an elbow injury just as it looked like he was about to make his MLB debut, and after two completely lost seasons, he came back from Tommy John surgery in 2025 and wasn't anywhere close to the same pitcher he was before the injury. Specifically, he went from having what was widely considered to be a plus fastball to having a pretty terrible one, and it led to a 5.26 ERA in Triple-A last season. And he wasn't any better this season.
Despite breaking camp with the Phillies, Painter's fastball continued to be an issue and he was sent back down to Triple-A in mid-June with a 7.06 ERA. He went back down to the minors and continued to look pretty uninspiring, but a funny thing has happened in his past few starts since returning: He's starting to look like the pre-injury version of himself. You know, the one who was arguably the best pitching prospect in the game.
We saw the absolute best version of Painter Saturday against the Cardinals, as he carved them up for eight strikeouts while allowing just one hit in seven innings. But it wasn't just the results that were worth getting excited about; it was how Painter actually pitched. Specifically, it was the fastball, which generated five swinging strikes on 15 swings, while sitting up at 97.3 mph on average and, most notably, generated two more inches of induced vertical break than his season average.
That's no small thing; it takes Painter's fastball from a pretty mediocre shape to a very good one and helps explain why he suddenly started missing bats with the pitch. On the whole, Painter generated 20 swinging strikes in the start, led by his changeup, a new pitch Painter brought out in Triple-A after shelving his splitter. That changeup has looked solid since he came back, but it's the fastball that really stands out as a potential difference maker for Painter.
For the most part this season, the only path to success for Painter seemed to be through limiting his fastball usage, as that pitch had a whiff rate around 10% and tended to get clobbered. It was a bad pitch, and if you have a bad fastball, it's hard to hide absent exceptional command of the rest of the arsenal. It's way too early to declare that Painter's four-seamer is suddenly a weapon.
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