President Donald Trump at the start of the Iran war predicted it would last four-to-five weeks, but the conflict is now in its seventh month, with no clear timeline for when the fighting will end. Active hostilities between Washington and Tehran resumed earlier this month, with oil tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz coming under fire. Iran is vying to maintain a chokehold over the vital trade route amid the U.S. blockade against its ports.
The Strait effectively remains in a military stalemate, bringing renewed regional instability and gravely impacting transit via the waterway, through which around a fifth of global oil production flowed before the war began on Feb. 28. Oil prices last week soared to over $100 a barrel for the first time since July, as the disruption sends energy markets spiraling once more. The balance of power in the Gulf has come under further strain as Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have made significant advances following weeks of fighting with the Saudi-backed government of Yemen, shattering a four-year informal cease-fire in the country's civil war.
The Houthis last week captured the strategic Perim Island, which sits in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another vital trade route situated between Yemen and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa, that links Asia and Europe via the Red Sea and Suez Canal. This came as they traveled along the Red Sea coastline, aiming to tighten their grip on the critical maritime chokepoint. The disruption has placed further pressure on the global oil market.
The Houthis’ expanding presence in the Red Sea and the potential it has to severely disrupt trade via the Bab el-Mandeb arguably gives Iran leverage in its war with the U.S., experts say. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Arabian Peninsula, tells TIME. The Gulf states, many of which house U.S. bases that have been targeted by Iranian strikes, on Monday postponed a critical meeting with Tehran on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite pressure mounting for a clear way out of the war, meaningful negotiations between the U.S. and Iran also remain stalled. Here’s what each side has said regarding the status of peace talks, and how experts predict Iranian officials could use the Houthis’ disruption in the Red Sea to their benefit. Trump on Monday said the U.S. is “open” to the concept of restarting negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
High-level officials from both sides last convened for official peace talks in Switzerland in June. I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing. They are just playing out the inevitable,” he insisted.
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