On average, investors generally expect the market to provide roughly a 10% return each year. In fact, if you look at the long-term history of the S&P 500 index (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), that's about what you get, assuming you reinvest dividends. So what should an investor make of the fact that the first six months of 2026 saw the S&P 500 index advance 9.5% on a price-only basis and nearly 10.2% with dividends reinvested?
The first issue to address regarding market returns is that it includes bull and bear markets. A bull market is when the market goes up 20%, while a bear market is when it falls 20%. Bull and bear markets represent moves much larger than 10% and highlight that the market does not just go up at a steady, comfortable pace.
The markets can be, and often are, quite volatile. This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia.
For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue » To be fair, if you bought and held the S&P 500 index over the long term, you would have seen the value of your portfolio rise dramatically. You can easily buy the index with a low-cost exchange-trade fund like Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO).
But you have had to hold on through some pretty trying periods. For example, since the turn of the century, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: SPY), the oldest ETF tracking this index, is up roughly 400% on a price-only basis, with reinvested dividends bringing the total return up to just over 700%. But that period of time included the dot-com crash, the Great Recession, and the global COVID pandemic.
Each one was highlighted by a bear market, and those bear markets didn't start on Jan. 1 of any given year or end on Dec. 31. And the subsequent bull markets didn't start on a specific calendar date, either. In other words, the stock market can move dramatically in either direction at any point during the year.
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