Republican Michael Whatley is within striking distance of former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper in the race for North Carolina’s open U.S. Senate seat, according to a new High Point University poll released Friday. The race is for the seat currently held by Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who is not seeking reelection.
Cooper, who served as North Carolina governor from 2017 through 2024, is seeking a return to elected office, while Whatley is the former chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC) and the North Carolina Republican Party. Jeff Allen, Cooper for North Carolina campaign manager, told Newsweek via email on Friday when asked about the new poll, "Roy Cooper has spent his career putting North Carolinians first, while Washington, D.C., insider Michael Whatley spent his delivering for billionaires and special interests at the expense of the middle class. A Democrat has not won statewide federal office in North Carolina in nearly two decades and we know this race will be very close, which is why we’re building a campaign to earn every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them in the Senate." Newsweek also reached out to Whatley's campaign via email on Friday for comment.
Republicans in the Senate hold a 53-45 majority—excluding independent Senators Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who caucus with Democrats—and Democrats view flipping the seat as a potential pathway to taking control of the upper chamber. Midterm elections are also commonly seen as a measure of public approval for the current president too, and the president's party has traditionally lost seats during these elections. Trump has backed Whatley in the race, adding another layer of potential intensity.
The contest is viewed as one of the key Senate races of the 2026 midterms, with the outcome potentially affecting control of the chamber. The Cook Political Report has the race slated as Lean Democrat. The poll showed that among likely voters, Cooper leads Whatley 50 percent to 45 percent, a 5-point advantage that falls within the poll’s 5.2-percentage-point credibility interval.
The poll shows that 3 percent are unsure or would not vote and 3 percent would pick someone else or another party. The survey of 800 self-identified registered voters, including 660 likely voters, was conducted August 3-12. The poll marks a closer contest than some recent surveys have suggested.
Among all self-identified registered voters, Cooper leads Whatley 48 percent to 41 percent, with 8 percent unsure or saying they would not vote and 4 percent saying they would pick someone else or another party. The HPU poll gives that group a 4.3-percentage-point credibility interval. Grant Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek via email on Friday in part, "One has to be careful about slicing the results too thin.
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