We're now through two games in each of the four divisional series in the 2026 Major League Baseball playoffs and three of the series have a team leading two games to none. It's a best-of-five round, so three series are now on the verge of being sweeps. Of the three teams in that 0-2 hole -- the Guardians, Padres and Yankees -- which has the best shot to come back and win?
Before we dive in and rank their chances, it needs to be said that it is a total long shot for any of these three teams to win. The most likely scenario is that all three lose their series. Only 10 teams have ever come back from being down 0-2 in a five-game series in MLB history, with the most recent being the 2017 Yankees.
It has only happened three times since 2003. They used Michael King in Game 2, ran through all their big bullpen arms in the first two games and still came away with zero wins. Much like when the Brewers got a runner on base and he stole second in the ninth, they feel inevitable here after a 103-win regular season and so many comebacks, not to mention winning any which way is necessary in any given game.
On the Padres' end, they do get to return home to Petco Park, which was Vibes Central in the Wild Card Series against the Cubs. Nick Pivetta looked pretty good, and with the day off between Games 2 and 3, the Padres will have a full complement of bullpen arms available for Game 3. Win one game and you never know, right?
It should also be noted that the Brewers have a drastic fall off in starting pitching after Games 1 and 2 starters Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson. While the series is very likely ending up with the Brewers, it's certainly in "you're telling me there's a chance?" range. I more strongly believe in the Padres than the Guardians, but the task is different here because the Guardians are facing an 84-win regular-season team while the Padres deal with the mighty Brewers.
The White Sox are a good team, but definitely not a great one. They are surviving mostly on bullpen games and have done a great job, going 4-0 in the playoffs so far. Simple logic tells us, however, that an 84-win team that has gone 4-0 in road playoff games means that, at some point, there's a regression coming, right?
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