This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: There's good news and bad news for folks who love a good coat of ice on the Great Lakes for the activities and businesses it supports. The good news is that, after decades of declining annual average ice cover, there's reason to believe that trend could slow or even temporarily reverse.
That's according to new research from the Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, or CIGLR, at the University of Michigan. "We may anticipate a pause in ice cover decline, or even a moderate (short-lived) increase in average ice cover," the team wrote in its study published in Communications Earth & Environment. "This contradicts most existing literature on this subject." The research suggests that the Great Lakes' ice cover is synced to strong but slow-churning natural global cycles that drive regional weather patterns.
Currently, we're in a trough, but we could be heading toward a crest that would mean more ice cover, even against a backdrop of global warming. That is not to say the lakes are out of hot water with respect to climate change. "It is important that we do not interpret these changes as climate recovery, but rather a temporary respite from the background warming that has continued over the last 125 years," the authors wrote.
The researchers also found further concerning news: Especially with warmer temperatures, year-to-year swings in ice cover can be massive. This makes forecasting ice cover for future winters more challenging. That, in turn, makes it more difficult for Great Lakes residents, businesses and the shipping industry to prepare for and adapt to what may be in store.
"If you look at the last 50 years, the highest ice year and the lowest ice year we have on record are back to back," said David Cannon, senior author of the new study and an assistant research scientist with CIGLR. "So as we continue seeing these changes in the lakes, maintaining our observations and long-term records is really important." Building a better long-term record of ice cover was the basis for this new study, which began as part of the Great Lakes Summer Fellows Program. In partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, or NOAA GLERL, the fellows program offers undergraduate students hands-on, real-world research experience while strengthening scientific understanding of the lakes.
This particular opportunity appealed to Elleanna Viere. "I have always loved Lake Superior growing up in Minnesota," Viere said. "By the time I was off to undergrad, I knew that I wanted to go to Northland College on the south shore of Lake Superior, where I further fell in love with snow and the Great Lakes.
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