Three days before the midterm elections, Democrats are strongly favored to win the House of Representatives but hold a narrower advantage in the Senate; there, several potentially decisive races remain within a normal polling error. The result will determine which party controls the congressional agenda, leads committees and oversees President Donald Trump during the final two years of his term. Midterm elections have historically created difficulties for the president’s party, allowing voters to check the White House without removing its occupant.
This year, that effect could extend beyond the House and threaten Republicans’ 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for outright control because Vice President JD Vance can break a 50-50 tie in favor of Republicans. With several decisive races close simultaneously, a modest national polling error in either direction could alter the outcome across multiple states.
The following details were checked by Newsweek at 7 a.m. ET on Friday, October 30. Silver Bulletin, which updated its forecast on October 29, gave Democrats a 95.1 percent chance of winning the House, with an average projection of 240 Democratic seats to 195 Republican seats.
It put their probability of controlling the Senate at 77.7 percent, with an average division of 53 Democratic seats to 47 Republican seats. In his October 29 update, Nate Silver said Democrats remained strong favorites to retake the House. However, he added that their polling leads in Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Maine were each within the range of a normal polling error.
Decision Desk HQ, last updated at 7:25 a.m. on October 29, gave Democrats an 80 percent chance of winning the House and a 60 percent chance of controlling the Senate. It projected 238 House seats and 52 Senate seats. VoteHub gave Democrats an 89 percent chance of controlling the House and a 63 percent chance of controlling the Senate, including a 60 percent probability of winning both chambers.
Forecasts are not directly interchangeable because they make different assumptions about polling, political fundamentals and uncertainty. They also differ from polling averages, which measure current voter preference rather than the probability of an eventual result. Eight Senate races were within four points in at least one polling average examined by Newsweek; this places them among the contests most likely to determine control of the chamber.
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