President Trump is playing defense, campaigning through deep-red corners of the country that he won by overwhelming margins just two years ago. And assumptions that Democrats will win control of Congress have become conventional wisdom in many quarters, from longtime political observers to social media to the oddsmakers in prediction markets. But as Democratic dreams of midterm victories grow bigger, some strategists quietly worry that expanding expectations are crowding out signs of a more challenging political reality.
Control of the Senate hinges on victories in red states that favored Mr. Trump by significant margins in 2024, including some that Democrats have not won in decades. Republicans are outspending them by eye-popping amounts in key races.
And after its performance in 2024, the Democratic Party as a brand still remains unpopular among voters. All of that has left some in both parties wondering: Could the much-discussed blue wave end up looking more like a splash? Strategists in both parties believe it is increasingly unlikely that Republicans will be able to hold on to their House majority.
But among Democratic donors, activists and voters, hopes of winning control of both chambers have grown so high that some fear any other result could feel like falling short. President Trump is campaigning through deep red corners of the country that he won by overwhelming margins just two years ago, including South Carolina.Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times “I am concerned that we have an overheating of expectations,” said Molly Murphy, a pollster who worked on the 2024 campaigns of former President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Murphy said, destroyed by gerrymandering that has left relatively few House seats truly competitive. In 2018, the most recent midterm election considered a landslide election, Democrats won 41 House seats and control of the chamber. But Republicans gained two Senate seats and expanded their majority.
This year, there’s near-universal agreement among politicians, strategists and activists that Republicans face steeper political headwinds than Democrats. Trump’s approval rating hit a new low this week, views of the economy are dismal and Democrats lead by 11 points on the generic ballot — a measure often used to gauge a party’s strength. The sharp deterioration of the national political environment for Republicans has transformed the electoral map, forcing their candidates on the defensive in surprising places.
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