On September 23, fighting escalated dramatically in Ethiopia's Tigray region. Tigrayan forces seized three local airports and fighting spread into the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara, according to reports. Both sides accuse the other of starting the escalation.
The renewed fighting poses a major challenge to the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement that ended the previous Tigray war. This is where Eritrea becomes crucial. Martin Plaut, a British journalist specializing in the Horn of Africa, noted that the US needs Eritrea in the struggle to secure the Red Sea against the Houthis, an Iran-backed Shiite Muslim militia.
Plaut argues that removing sanctions gives new political weight to one of Africa's most repressive regimes. As fighting resumes in Tigray, Eritrea could once again become a decisive military player. Plaut said that the current tensions had the potential of developing into a broader regional confrontation, which, he said, "is the most serious danger." In his view, US President Donald Trump's administration has already made a strategic calculation: "Trump has now mended fences with Eritrea and has lifted sanctions against Eritrea" in an effort to reduce the threat posed by the Houthis and secure the Red Sea.
The escalation in Tigray came only days after Washington removed key Eritrean entities and individuals from its sanctions list. On September 18, the United States allowed the national emergency underpinning its Ethiopia-related sanctions regime to expire. The Treasury Department subsequently removed a number of Eritrean individuals and entities from its sanctions list, including senior financial official Hagos Ghebrehiwet and the Red Sea Trading Corporation.
The measures had originally been imposed in 2021 in connection with the Tigray war. US officials have not described the move as an endorsement of Eritrea, nor has Washington publicly said that it struck a deal with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. But it removes a layer of pressure on a government whose strategic importance has grown as security around the Red Sea deteriorates.
For Abdurahman Sayed, director of the Horn of Africa Centre for Regional Integration and a political analyst, the wider geopolitical context is crucial. "It is happening at a time when the war on Iran is ongoing," he told DW. "The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked for some time, and now the Bab el-Mendeb on the Red Sea, where Eritrea is located, this may give Eritrea some advantage to establish a meaningful relationship with the US." Eritrea controls a long coastline opposite Yemen.
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