Last week, India released glowing GDP numbers for the latest quarter – 7.8% growth – higher than the forecast 7%. Subhash Garg, a former finance secretary under Narendra Modi’s government and now a critic, reframed what Modi called a “herculean feat” as mere smoke and mirrors. According to Garg, the government revised last year’s current-price GDP downwards to inflate this year’s number – he believes the real growth is only 2.6%.
The assertion, made on a television channel, immediately went viral. A flurry of op-eds and hot takes have been published since. Supporters of the government, predictably, rejected the claims.
Those who have questions agree on a more fundamental problem: a lack of transparency and statistical credibility in India’s economic data. So why is there no consensus? Over the past decade, critics say, the government has systematically hollowed out the integrity of its own data infrastructure, weaponising economic data for political gain and creating a trust deficit.
Methodologies have been changed, crucial surveys have faced long delays and there have been attempts to suppress inconvenient findings. In November, the International Monetary Fund rated India’s national accounts data a ‘C’ on a four-point scale, the second-lowest grade. In its report, the IMF said some of the methodologies are outdated, including relying on an old base year, unexplained discrepancies between GDP calculated from the production and expenditure side, as well as a lack of seasonal data.
India’s statistical system once commanded respect, and its data on economic and social indicators was considered rigorous. There might have been disagreements on the quality of estimates but their independence was widely accepted. That trust appears to have eroded in recent years.
They have apparently also removed critical officials who headed some surveys. All of this adds to the scepticism.” In one of the most prominent examples, from 2019, a Business Standard journalist revealed that the government had not published an official report showing unemployment at a 45-year high of 6.1%. Two expert members of the National Statistical Commission resigned in protest.
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