Most of the season, my assumption was that November would be a slow month for the hot stove. There is a new collective bargaining agreement coming, likely after a lockout, and I figured teams would not want to commit significantly to future payroll without first seeing what the new CBA would bring. Salary cap, stiffer competitive balance tax penalties, whatever.
A perfectly reasonable stance, that is, and I say that as someone who is happy to call out teams and owners who do not appear to be putting forth the best effort to contend, if you catch my drift. My assumption was November would be slow. I am here now to tell you why my assumption not just may be wrong, but likely is wrong, and the hot stove will burn bright in November.
The CBA expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1, or four weeks from Tuesday. Here now are four reasons why MLB clubs could be active between now and then.
MLB teams committed more than $1.7 billion to free agents in November 2021, just before the last CBA expired and the owners locked out the players. That includes the Rangers, who spent more than $560 million on Jon Gray, Corey Seager, and Marcus Semien. Those three later helped the Rangers win the franchise's first World Series title in 2023.
Five players signed nine-figure contracts in the weeks leading up to the last lockout. It is not only the teams we must consider here. More than 140 players became free agents the day after the World Series, and you can be sure many (most?) of them would prefer to sign before the lockout.
They want to get their contract locked in and know where they'll play next season so they can find a place to live, get the kids enrolled in school, etc. Peace of mind during the lockout will go a long way. MLB's owners did not propose a salary cap during the last round of labor negotiations, but there was similar uncertainty about what the upcoming CBA would bring, and teams spent lots of money anyway.
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