We've long known that Jeremiah Smith is often the best player on the field. It's not a stretch to say he would've been a top-five pick -- and the first wide receiver taken -- in each of the previous two drafts had he been eligible. Two seasons into his Ohio State career, Smith has 2,558 receiving yards and 27 touchdowns, and he's been one of the most productive receivers in college football basically from the moment he arrived on campus.
He's probably going to be the first non-quarterback drafted next April (I have him going No. 2 overall in my latest mock draft) and, hell, maybe he becomes the first wide receiver to go No. 1 overall since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996. But that question is mostly settled. Smith has already shown – consistently – he's good enough to be drafted that high.
The real issue is whether even a receiver this talented can remove any lingering doubts to justify one of the most valuable picks in the draft. Recent history says the bar has to be higher than simply looking like a top-10 player. The receivers drafted that early are usually dominant, productive and explosive, with little squinting needed to confirm your hunches.
Even then, the leap from elite prospect to elite NFL return is hardly automatic. That's the line Smith is trying to cross. He's not just making the case that he belongs near the top of the draft; he's trying to make the case that the usual reasons for hesitating on a receiver that high matter less with him.
The opportunity cost near the top of the draft is enormous. Take a receiver fourth or fifth overall, and you're passing on edge rushers, offensive tackles, cornerbacks and quarterbacks, depending on the class. The question can't simply be whether the receiver has first-round talent; everybody under consideration at this point in the conversation cleared that bar a long time ago.
So we went back through the recent history of first-round receivers to see what actually separated the players NFL teams were willing to take in the top 10 from those who lasted until later in Round 1. The first answer was pretty obvious: the premium guys generally weren't just productive college receivers. They overwhelmed college football.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
