Senate race between Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson is shaping up to be quite a tight race, the state governor's race tells a different story. Democrat Rob Sand holds a clearer lead over Republican Zach Lahn, raising questions about why some voters may be willing to back a Democrat for governor while supporting a Republican for Senate. Iowa is among this year's most competitive Senate races, as Turek and Hinson vie for the open seat left by retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst.
Polls continue to show a tight race between the two after their first debate on October 7 where tariffs, immigration and voting records played a major role. A second debate was held last week, where again the candidates sparred over the Iran war, tariffs and immigration. The governor's seat is also open this year, with Sand and Lahn competing to replace Republican Kim Reynolds who is not running for reelection.
However, unlike the Senate race, polls between the gubernatorial candidates aren't nearly as tight. Sand has maintained an impressive lead over Lahn since the primaries, even among Republican pollsters. Iowa hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 2008 when Democratic Senator Tom Harkin won his reelection bid, and it's been even longer since Iowa voters have elected a Democratic governor, last doing so in 2006, when Chet Culver won.
According to a round-up of polls compiled by the New York Times, Sand leads Lahn in every poll taken since at least the primaries in June and even before. In several cases, Sand has a double-digit lead over Lahn, and although "polls should be taken with a big grain of salt,” Timothy Hagle, a professor at the University of Iowa and an expert on Iowa politics, told Newsweek, Sand does seem to be performing better in the gubernatorial race than Lahn. Six polls have come out in October, all showing Sand in the lead.
They are: The same round-up by the Times for the Hinson-Turek race for Senate is much tighter. Turek led in three of the polls, while Hinson led in the other three. Experts explained that there are several reasons why Sand might be more favored among Iowa voters than Turek, even though both are Democrats vying for different political seats.
For one, Sand has "greater name recognition" than Turek, said John Geer, Gertrude Conaway Vanderbilt Professor of Political Science at Vanderbilt University who specializes in public opinion, as Sand previously ran for Iowa state auditor in 2018 and won. Sand was reelected to the position in 2022. "And as part of those previous efforts, Sand has developed a strong reputation with moderate and independent voters," Geer told Newsweek.
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