Game 1 of the four Wild Card Series is next Tuesday, and, for the second straight year and the third time in four years, a team with the second-best record in its league will play in that best-of-three Wild Card Series rather than earn a bye to the League Division Series. The bye goes to the division winners with the two best records, not the teams with the two best records. The current postseason format has been in place since 2022.
Here are the previous two times a team finished with the second-best record in its league only to get bumped down from the No. 2 seed to the No. 4 seed due to the format rules: The 2026 AL East will join that group as well. Barring a miracle, the Rays (95-60) will win the division and the Yankees (89-66) will finish second, and they'll have the league's two best records. Tampa will get a bye while the Yankees play in the Wild Card Series.
The second bye will go to the AL Central or AL West winner, neither of whom will finish within eight games of New York. Furthermore, the Yankees are lined up to play the Red Sox (84-72) in the Wild Card Series. The Red Sox will soon clinch the AL's third-best record.
The winner of that series will then play the Rays in the ALDS because the postseason format says the league's No. 1 seed must play a wild-card team in the Division Series, so they get the No. 4 vs. The Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees will go through each other in the Wild Card Series and ALDS, while one of the Astros, Guardians, or Rangers (or Blue Jays or Astros, if they make it) is guaranteed a spot in the ALCS. The Red Sox haven't locked up the No. 5 seed yet.
They should tank the rest of their games and fall into the No. 6 seed! The No. 6 seed has a much more favorable path. From 2023-25, only twice did the worst division winner have a better record than the top wild-card team, and on two occasions, the second wild-card team had a better record than the worst division winner.
That will likely be the case again this season with the Yankees, Red Sox, and whatever happens with the AL Central and AL West races. It's a good year to be a mediocre team in the American League. I'm sympathetic to the "if you don't like it, win your division" argument, but there must be a better way -- a fairer way -- to run the postseason.
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