STOCKHOLM — As far-right leader Jimmie Åkesson danced beside the pink balaclava-wearing singer Miss Smut at his final campaign rally, he hoped a late surge in the polls would carry his Sweden Democrats into power. But the following day’s election instead delivered a rude shock to Sweden’s anti-immigration vanguard: A loss of vote share, support and influence for the first time since the SD was founded by neo-Nazis in the 1980s. The left bloc narrowly won the contest and will now seek to form a government that doesn’t include any right-wing parties.
Amid reports of recriminations within the SD, Åkesson may take time away from frontline politics, but insists he won’t resign. The disappointing outcome for the SD is a rarity these days in European politics: A far-right populist party making a name for itself campaigning against immigration, but then falling back instead of grasping power. POLITICO spoke to experts and key players, including outgoing center-right Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and his likely Social Democrat replacement Magdalena Andersson, to draw some lessons from the campaign.
The SD’s vote share fell from 20.5% in 2022 to 17.5% this year, even though it had supported Kristersson’s center-right coalition within the parliament for four years. Although Åkesson’s party succeeded in pushing Kristersson’s administration to adopt tougher policies on crime and immigration, their electoral result was ultimately worse. Kristersson’s Moderates party, meanwhile, increased its support and overtook the SD to become the second-largest force in the parliament.
That outcome will have drawn the notice of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats and the far-right Alternative for Germany, for example, as well as of Britain’s Conservative Party and Reform UK. Åkesson’s explanation for the SD’s disappointing result was bang on brand for an anti-migrant populist. At a Friday press conference he claimed the Social Democrats and their allies on the left had been “very good at mobilizing the Islamist voters who previously had other parties to vote for.” At the same time, he said, some right-wing supporters had voted for tiny parties that didn’t make it over the 4% vote threshold required for representation in parliament.
Åkesson wasn’t alone in flagging voter behavior. Social Democrat leader Andersson spent much of the campaign warning voters not to put Åkesson and his team in power, casting it as a central election issue. She told POLITICO on election day that voters who supported Kristersson and other right-wing parties, knowing that support would put far-right ministers in government for the first time, were “in denial.” “They don’t really want to see that they actually vote for a government dominated by Sweden Democrats,” she said.
Mainstream European parties have for decades pursued a “firewall” policy against the far right to block it from power, determined to prevent a return of the fascism that so scarred Europe in the 20th century. In reality, Sweden formerly stout firewall has developed many holes over the past four years. Kristersson broke the taboo against working with the SD back in 2022 when, in a coalition with two other right-wing parties, he signed a deal to implement key SD priorities in exchange for their support in parliament.
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