Why the NFL could power Netflix stock up more than 30% Brian Sozzi · Executive Editor May 14, 2026 2 min read NFLX Netflix (NFLX) scores a win with the NFL. The analysis: Netflix announced this week at its New York upfront presentation that it will host five NFL games during the 2026 season — an addition of three games. This includes an Australian matchup, a Thanksgiving eve game, two Christmas Day games, and one Week 18 game.
It also plans to host the NFL Honors during Super Bowl week. The increased number of games is part of a four-year extension with the NFL through 2029-2030. "We continue to believe Netflix remains focused on eventized sports entertainment & shoulder content, and we expect more live sports rights over time.
Live events and sports should continue to attract more ad tier subs and ad dollars," JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth said in a note on Thursday. He added, "We believe Netflix's Upfront announcements demonstrate continued progress across Netflix's multi-year journey toward building a scaled advertising strategy delivering measurable outcomes for marketers, and also highlight our view of Netflix becoming Global TV." Anmuth reiterated an Overweight rating on Netflix stock. His price target of $118 assumes about 35% upside from current trading levels.
Don't forget: Netflix came up short when it announced first quarter earnings in mid-May, and the report hammered the stock. Shares have continued to trek lower since then. Netflix stock is down by 7% year to date.
Investors were frustrated that Netflix failed to raise its full-year 2026 revenue guidance from $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion. The company's full-year operating margin guidance of 31.5% came in below the 32% analysts had expected, suggesting that the "breakup fee" it gained from the failed Paramount (PSKY) bid is masking higher content amortization costs. Adding to the uncertainty, longtime chair Reed Hastings announced he was officially stepping down, marking the end of an era just as the company faces increasing pressure to prove its advertising business can scale.
"We believe some investors were expecting a beat and raise around the U.S. price increase, which we believe could weigh on near-term sentiment," KeyBanc analyst Justin Patterson said in a note. Bottom line: It's good to see Netflix executing on its promise to deliver more live content as it seeks to steal further market share away from traditional TV. The NFL deal is a solid example of this, so is something like the recent Kevin Hart comedy roast.
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