Brazil votes on Sunday in the presidential election that pits President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva against far-right Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro. Will the incumbent left-wing leader be able to prevent Brazil from joining Latin America’s shift to the right? A wave of right-wing election victories in recent years, including in Colombia, Chile and Argentina, has swept Latin America, aided by the Trump administration under a new framework of the “Donroe Doctrine”, an updated version of the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine aimed at restoring the pre-eminence of the United States in the Western Hemisphere.
Lula has sought to portray Senator Bolsonaro, whom he has called a “nobody” in campaign speeches, as a stand-in for a broader right-wing movement spreading across Latin America. As Brazil heads to the polls on Sunday, will Lula be able to halt the right-wing wave in the region? Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, better known simply as Lula, is the country’s current president and the candidate for the Workers’ Party, or the PT.
The 80-year-old has been a central figure in Brazilian politics for decades, serving two four-year presidential terms between 2003 and 2011, and is currently serving his third term, which began in 2023. His time in office has been defined by an effort to boost democracy, which was restored after a US-backed military dictatorship ruled the country for decades until the 1980s. He introduced a series of social programmes meant to address inequality, helping lift millions out of poverty.
Lula has also sought to forge ties between developing, non-Western countries on the global stage. The 45-year-old has emerged as the heir to his father’s position as leader of Brazil’s political right and Lula’s main challenger. He is running as the candidate of the right-wing Liberal Party.
Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged a hard stance on crime and insecurity and close collaboration with the administration of US President Donald Trump, which has designated several criminal groups in Brazil as “terrorist organisations”. He has also promised to rein in inflation and government spending, with an adviser stating that he would implement a debt ceiling if elected. Flavio has also sought to turn his father’s conviction into a story of political persecution, denouncing his trial as illegitimate and seeking his release from prison.
A series of polls on Saturday suggested that Lula da Silva is slightly ahead of Senator Bolsonaro before Sunday’s first-round vote. The polls have projected the race to be close, with a likely run-off between the left-wing incumbent and his far-right challenger. A poll by CNT/MDA, a prominent political opinion and electoral poll in Brazil, gave Lula 47.3 percent in the run-off while Bolsonaro trailed at 43.1 percent.
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