We have been reminded over and over and over this year that what we expect to happen probably won't. Imagine telling someone after Week 1 the Browns and Deshaun Watson would be 3-1. You could be holding a Gray's Sporting Almanac and they wouldn't believe you.
Bet on the NFL and more at DraftKings, where new users get $150 in bonus bets after spending $5+: So let's continue to expect the unexpected as we head into the meat of Week 4 and let's not do what, ahem, some of us did last week, which is to take too much road chalk. It's been bad for a while and will likely continue to be. Just when you think a team is down and out, they might be ready to surprise you.
Let's find some winners, as well as some good player props and touchdown scorers! The Bears were an incredible story in Week 3, with Case Keenum delivering an elite primetime performance to steal a win over the Eagles and help propel Chicago's season forward despite Caleb Williams' injury. I think he can play well here too, but I also think the Bears being a 3.5-point favorite is a bit too much against a Jets team that has been pretty darn frisky so far this season.
This smells like a sneaky shootout to me and when there are a ton of points being scored, I want the hook, especially with the Bears defense being susceptible to teams covering through the backdoor. I don't think the Chargers are that good, honestly. The offensive line's been terrible, Ladd McConkey might not play and the Seahawks are (were?) a truck and now they're mad and at home.
But this line wouldn't have been seven before the season, so it's a pretty massive overcorrection. The Chargers are 0-3 and DESPERATE. They gave the Bills a good run for their money and still didn't cover, so no one's going to be backing them here.
I think they'll do the same with Seattle, except the Seahawks won't pull away like Buffalo did. The Broncos either just hang around or find a way to storm back in the second half. They don't care if you have an elite defense or the game is on the road.
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