With world championship leader Kimi Antonelli set to start from the back of the grid at the Italian Grand Prix, the trio of Brits attempting to chase him down at the top of the standings have a major opportunity. Antonelli's Mercedes team-mate George Russell and Ferrari's Lewis Hamilton both trail the Italian by 59 points, while reigning world champion Lando Norris has reduced his deficit to 83 points with victories at the last two races. Mercedes have decided that Monza, despite it being Antonelli's home race, is the best circuit for the 20-year-old to incur penalties for exceeding his allowance of engine parts for the season.
With grid penalties inevitable at some point for Antonelli after he lost a second power unit to technical issues earlier in the season, the expected simplicity of overtaking at Monza convinced team and driver to take the Temple of Speed. While Mercedes clearly anticipate Antonelli will be able to fight back through the field to score points, Sunday's race remains a huge opportunity for those behind him to take a chunk out of his lead. Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player Russell, who is above Hamilton in second in the standings because he has won more races, surely cannot afford to miss out at Monza.
Whereas the two races either side of the summer break - in Hungary and the Netherlands - were never expected to be Mercedes' strongest tracks, they should return to form in Italy. However, being unexpectedly outperformed by Antonelli over the first half of the season has created doubts for Russell around his approach. The 28-year-old produced a solid weekend in Zandvoort after the break as he won the Sprint and took third in the race, but he was still no match for Antonelli in terms of Sunday pace.
Bearing in mind that he too will have to take a grid penalty at a race later this season, anything other than a major gain for Russell could see the team lean towards prioritising Antonelli for the rest of the campaign. A scenario where Russell fails to finish ahead of his team-mate would all but end the Brit's title hopes. The title charge Hamilton appeared to be mounting when he claimed his first Ferrari Grand Prix win in Barcelona back in June has gradually lost momentum.
Errors from both driver and team have contributed to a failure to maximise results in just about all five races since Barcelona. The seven-time world champion needs a weekend to reinvigorate his challenge, and where better to produce it than in front of the tifosi at Monza? The big question around Ferrari going into the team's home race is how effective the engine upgrade they are expected to bring to Monza will be.
If they take a significant step forward in that department, there is every chance that one of the drivers in red can stand on the top of the podium on Sunday. It's crucial for Hamilton that he makes sure it's him, because victory for his team-mate Charles Leclerc would represent a major setback for his hopes of claiming a record eighth title. Hamilton's lead over Leclerc is only 28 points, a figure which he needs to increase to persuade Ferrari to throw their support behind his title aspirations sooner rather than later.
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