Tom Cruise has built a career on jumping out of airplanes, scaling skyscrapers and performing other high-wire antics in the name of entertainment. His next stunt may be his riskiest yet: Getting moviegoers to see “Digger,” a rare big-budget, star-driven original comedy. The Warner Bros. release, which opens on Oct. 2, represents one of the fall season’s biggest gambles.
There’s pressure on “Digger” not just to offset the studio’s terrible year at the box office (with bombs including Maggie Gyllenhaal’s punk rock “The Bride!” and DC’s “Supergirl”) but also to impress the new corporate ownership. Paramount Skydance hopes to imminently close its acquisition of Warner Bros. It might not be Digger Rockwell to the rescue.
Projections were at $18 million to $20 million but were revised down in recent days. The film was greenlit at $125 million, but according to knowledgable sources, the budget climbed to $160 million to $180 million after production went over schedule. A Warner Bros. spokesperson disputes those figures.
Regardless, a movie of this size would need a debut near $40 million to justify its budget, per rival execs. Since exhibitors keep about half of ticket sales, and the studio spent another $100 million on marketing, “Digger” has a theatrical break-even point of roughly $350 million globally, according to executives with knowledge of similar films. A Warner Bros. spokesperson pushed back, saying the film’s break-even point is $300 million.
Reviews and word of mouth will factor into the film’s box office longevity, analysts say. They also note that “Digger” could be bigger overseas, where Cruise’s movies tend to make the bulk of their money. Profitability for WB may take longer because Cruise gets first-dollar gross, meaning he earns a percentage of revenues before the studio recoups any costs.
He’s a franchise machine. Can audiences accept him as a transformative actor again after he’s branded himself as the action hero?” “Digger” is Cruise’s first original movie since 2017’s hit “American Made.” (That year, he also starred in the notorious flop “The Mummy.”) A bankable draw since the ‘80s, Cruise became synonymous with action stardom through the enduring “Mission: Impossible” franchise and then endeared himself to younger generations with 2022’s blockbuster “Top Gun: Maverick.” But even Cruise has learned the hard way that moviegoers have become pickier about what’s worth leaving the couch. His final two “Mission: Impossible” films — 2023’s “Dead Reckoning” and 2025’s “The Final Reckoning” — faced diminishing returns at the box office.
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