With under 60 days until the midterms, there is still plenty of time to change the entire political map

On Thursday, the House of Representatives decided to cancel votes for the last two weeks of September, meaning that after next week’s break for Labor Day and Rosh Hashanah, the House will only be in business for four days until the midterm elections. Right now, Republicans are going to need all the help they can get ahead of November. Midterms have a certain rhythm: two years after electing a president, voters either feel the administration has not lived up to its promises or seen them implemented and they now have buyer’s remorse.

All signs seem to show that for President Donald Trump and Republicans in the Senate and House of Representatives. Trump now boasts a 33 percent approval rating. He’s bleeding with Hispanic voters who had broken for him in 2024 and even more telling, he is starting to fall with white voters without college degrees and rural voters.

But every once in a while, a curveball can come along. In 1998, after Republicans impeached Bill Clinton but failed to convict him, Republicans actually lost House seats. In 2002, in the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks, Republicans earned a solid majority in the House and Senate.

And most recently, in 2022, when the Supreme Court killed the right to an abortion in the Dobbs v. Jackson decision, Republicans only barely won the House while Democrats held numerous governorships and netted a Senate seat. And then, sometimes, a wave is so big that the minority party can win in an unexpected place.

Here are some twists that could help shape what the political future of the nation will look like after November: There really is only one thing that could move the voting public to be more favorable to Trump and the GOP: ending the war in Iran. Despite what the administration says, the U.S. adventure in Iran is a war and it has caused the price of gas to rise exponentially. The resulting inflation has outpaced wage growth.

At this point, the only thing that would matter to voters is an end to the war that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and therefore increases the global supply of oil. On Thursday, Vice President JD Vance told reporters that “I wouldn’t call it a war” when asked if it would be over before the midterms. But every day that drags on reminds voters that Trump caused their gas prices to rise.