People aged 65 and older outnumbered children aged 5 and under worldwide for the first time in recorded history, marking a demographic "tipping point" that arrived earlier than experts anticipated, a new U.S. Census Bureau report said. The milestone was reached in 2023, years earlier than many demographers anticipated, as falling birth rates and longer life expectancies made demographic aging no longer a trend affecting a handful of wealthier countries, the report said.
It marks a historic reversal in the age structure and signals economic and social challenges that governments may face in the decades ahead, with concerns about shrinking workforces and rising dependency ratios. The report also notes that population aging reflects one of humanity's greatest successes: longer life expectancy and improved survival rates. The report found that more than 71 percent of the world's population lived in countries with fertility rates at or below the replacement level of roughly 2.1 children per woman in 2023, a sharp increase from 45 percent in 2013.
"In fact, the global population passed this tipping point much earlier than anticipated just a decade ago," the Census report noted, underscoring how rapidly demographic trends have shifted. Countries accounting for a large share of the world's population, including China and India, now have fertility rates below replacement level, while other populous nations such as Bangladesh, Mexico and Vietnam have also crossed that threshold since 2013, the Census report said. At the same time, people are living longer.
The Census Bureau projects the global population aged 65 and older will more than double from about 852 million in 2025 to nearly 2 billion by 2060. By then, older adults are expected to make up almost one-fifth of humanity, compared with roughly one in 10 people today. The growing share of seniors is expected to have far-reaching consequences for labor markets, healthcare systems and pension programs.
A smaller cohort of younger people could mean fewer workers available to support aging populations, increasing financial pressure on social welfare systems and long-term care services. The demographic transformation is not confined to Europe or North America. Asia is projected to experience the largest numerical increase in older adults, with its population aged 65 and over expected to rise from 487 million in 2025 to 1.24 billion by 2060.
Africa, which remains the world's youngest region, is also projected to see its senior population more than quadruple over the same period. The United States is following the same trajectory. Census Bureau projections show Americans aged 65 and older accounted for 18.9 percent of the population in 2025, a figure expected to rise to 23.4 percent by 2060.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
