This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: The advance of the Iran-aligned Houthi rebel group in Yemen has driven more than 130,000 people from their homes since the beginning of September, deepening the humanitarian crisis in an already poor country with a long history of domestic conflict. The Houthis have swept down Yemen's western coast, seizing the strategic port city of Mocha as well as the town of Dhubab and several islands in the Red Sea.
A key aim is to control the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the world's most important maritime chokepoints. This narrow passageway is bounded by Djibouti to the west and Yemen to the east, and is a primary shipping route connecting Asia with Europe. Around 15% of global seaborne trade passes through Bab al-Mandab annually, worth more than US$1 trillion (£756 billion).
This includes a substantial amount of oil. Saudi Arabia, which supports government forces in Yemen, has grown particularly reliant on exports via the Red Sea since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in February following the start of its war with the U.S. and Israel. The Strait of Hormuz is another maritime chokepoint, so its closure has led to higher global fertilizer and food prices.
Global energy costs have also surged, with oil prices rising from around US$70 per barrel in February to roughly US$90 per barrel by the end of August. The escalating hostilities in Yemen pose further uncertainty for global trade. In 2025, we published research that measured the impact of maritime chokepoint disruptions.
Our findings revealed which countries stand to lose most from shipping disruption through the Bab al-Mandab Strait. More than a dozen countries depend on the strait for more than half of their maritime trade by value, with Eritrea (87%), Djibouti (78%), Sudan (67%), South Sudan (65%) and Chad (61%) standing out as the most reliant states. Yemen itself relies on the Red Sea for 54% of its trade by value.
Here, maritime trade refers not only to goods loaded directly at a country's own ports but also to trade transported into a country from foreign ports and connected maritime routes. This explains why landlocked South Sudan and Chad also appear among the countries most exposed to disruption in the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Given its role in connecting Europe with Asia, the Bab al-Mandab Strait is important for countries outside the region, too.
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