In a wretched month for Ukrainians, ahead of a fast-approaching frigid winter, Donald Trump’s “very big and important deal” to acquire millions of tons of diesel fuel from Russia couldn’t have come at a worse time. The U.S. president’s plan to lift sanctions on Moscow to allow diesel imports came as a sucker punch for most Ukrainians enduring barrages of jet-powered drones and ballistic missiles, with civilian casualties mounting. The question for Zelenskyy is just how angry he can actually afford to be.
The Ukrainian president immediately dubbed Trump’s deal a “weak decision” and “a gift to Putin” that will fund Russia’s war. Even more defiantly, he approved further drone strikes on Russian refineries, prompting Trump to call for Ukrainians to replace Zelenskyy as their leader. Zelenskyy shows no signs of heeding Trump’s command to “better damn well stop” striking at Russia’s energy industry.
That’s very much a continuation of his loss of patience this year, which has seen him sharpening his rhetoric toward both critics and allies, rebuking European leaders for moving too slowly with support, trading barbs with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, and openly questioning Trump’s approach to the war. The tougher tone reflects mounting exasperation in Kyiv — especially with the U.S. president. Ukraine’s defense resilience and innovations with drones and missiles have augmented Zelenskyy’s confidence and readiness to push back.
And yet, venting his frustration is not without risks. Willasey-Wilsey suspects Zelenskyy may be calculating that Trump could emerge weakened from next month’s midterms, especially as some Republicans are already breaking ranks over the diesel deal. But the Ukrainian leader risks provoking Trump into cutting off vital U.S. intelligence support or pressuring Elon Musk to disable SpaceX’s Starlink internet service, on which Ukraine’s military heavily relies.
Zelenskyy may be underestimating “how dangerous a wounded Trump could be” for Ukraine, warned Willasey-Wilsey. The Trump administration has also threatened to halt a program through which allies purchase U.S. weapons for Ukraine, the Financial Times reported Monday. That would cause a major upheaval in supplies and force Kyiv to rely even more on its European allies, who are already struggling to rearm.
But Zelenskyy is standing firm. He insists Ukraine will only halt strikes on Russian oil refineries if Moscow ceases its air barrage. He has backing from an unlikely quarter: opposition lawmakers who are usually fierce critics of his leadership.
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