Polling advantages held by Democrats and a growing number of competitive races in Republican strongholds have led some observers to suggest that a “blue wave” in this year’s midterms could be more accurately forecast as a blue “tsunami.” According to the latest polling averages from the aggregator Decision Desk HQ, Democrats lead Republicans 48 percent to 40 percent nationally. The forecaster Race to the WH currently gives the former an 88 percent chance of winning a House majority and a 72 percent chance of winning the Senate. Though these numbers have grown increasingly bleak for the GOP, President Donald Trump has framed the contest in both chambers as winnable and crucial to advancing his agenda and avoiding another impeachment effort.
Longtime GOP strategists who spoke with Newsweek recently said Trump's repeated remarks—casting doubt on the integrity of U.S. elections—suggested he expected the party to suffer significant losses come November 3. Newsweek reached out to the White House via email for comment. The latest quarterly poll from Gallup found that 50 percent of Americans now consider themselves Democrat or a “Democratic leaner," compared with only 39 percent for the Republican Party.
The share of those leaning left has steadily risen since late 2024, but the 50-percent mark had not previously been achieved since 2009. "The party lean category is a good indicator of vote intentions," Stephen Ansolabehere, a professor of government at Harvard University, told Newsweek last week. "Generally, when it’s a good year for a party the proportion of people who lean in the direction of the eventual winner of the election goes up in October and November.
Come January or February that category returns to its original levels." Beyond general affiliation, the party also appears to be profiting from current frustrations with the Republican administration’s handling of the economy. A /Ipsos poll published in August showed that Democrats led Republicans on the economy 37 percent to 36 percent—their first edge on this issue in nearly a decade. In September, Democrats secured their first lead in NBC News polling on which party voters trust more on the economy since December 2017, beating the GOP 39 percent to 38 percent.
In what has also been viewed as a sign of Republicans' waning confidence, the party has been devoting less attention to Senate races in Georgia and North Carolina, which Trump carried in 2024 and which were earlier seen as integral to keeping control of the upper chamber. The party’s North Carolina Senate candidate, Michael Whatley, has not won a single major poll since The New York Times began tracking these in late 2024, and the forecaster RacetotheWH gives his opponent, Roy Cooper, a 90 percent chance of victory. In Georgia, meanwhile, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi now give the incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff over a 95 percent chance against his Republican rival, Mike Collins.
Some within the GOP have questioned whether it is worth investing in races with such bleak odds, with retiring Senator Thom Tillis quoted by The as arguing that the party has “got to place our bets on the candidates that are the best run, either ahead or within striking distance.” “It’s important that resources are directed where there’s a high probability of a winning outcome,” a Republican senator, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Semafor last month. It’s not an easy environment.” Semafor reported that the Senate Leadership Fund, a prominent GOP PAC associated with Majority Leader John Thune, had suspended spending in North Carolina. Two Republican officials said that the party was likewise redirecting efforts away from Georgia and toward more winnable contests.
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