Beto O'Rourke went into the last week of his 2018 Senate race trailing Ted Cruz in every final poll. Eight years later, Democrat James Talarico heads into the final stretch tied with Republican Ken Paxton or a little ahead, depending on the survey. O'Rourke lost by 2.6 points.
RealClearPolitics had him down 6.8 in its last average; today it has Talarico, a state representative who used to teach sixth grade, up 1.5. The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections all call it a toss-up. Texas hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since 1994.
Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican strategist in Texas, puts the gap down to two things. "This national climate is key to all of this, and then the differences between the candidates is the second key," he told Newsweek. Paxton has cushions of his own.
President Donald Trump won Texas by almost 14 points two years ago. Outside groups on Paxton's side have outspent Talarico's allies by more than 2-to-1. And the latest Fox News poll finds conservatives, along with Republicans who backed Senator John Cornyn in the primary, drifting back to him.
Newsweek reached out to the Talarico and Paxton campaigns for comment. Cruz ran in 2018 as a first-term senator, with Texas Republicans lined up behind him. That summer a University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll had his job approval at 50 percent; 42 percent disapproved.
Paxton's record is longer and messier. A grand jury indicted him on felony securities fraud charges in 2015. The case dragged on until 2024, when he took a pretrial diversion deal: community service and nearly $300,000 in restitution.
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