Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds a narrow lead over Republican nominee Mike Rogers in Michigan's U.S. Senate race, according to a new poll from TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP), a polling firm that has ranked among the nation's most accurate in recent election cycles. Democrats face a difficult map in 2026, needing to gain four seats while defending their own incumbents.
The party has pointed to voter concerns over the economy, the ongoing Iran war, and President Donald Trump’s slipping approval rating as potential opportunities to make inroads and flip the Senate. Republicans currently have a 53-47 majority in the Senate. The poll, which shows El-Sayed leading, comes amid debate within Democratic circles over El-Sayed's general-election prospects after the progressive candidate defeated U.S.
Representative Haley Stevens, who was backed by much of the party establishment, in this month's primary. While his victory energized progressives, some Democratic strategists and members have questioned whether he can defeat Rogers in a race that could help determine control of the Senate. With fewer than 100 days until Election Day, the candidates are ramping up their efforts to mobilize voters in the Great Lakes State.
Newsweek has reached out to El-Sayed and Rogers' campaigns for comment via email on Wednesday and is awaiting a response. A TIPP survey of 1,528 registered voters in Michigan, conducted for the League of American Workers, found El-Sayed ahead of Rogers with 45 percent of the vote, compared to the Republican’s 42 percent. About 7 percent said they would vote for someone else, and 6 percent said they were undecided.
The poll also asked voters if they were satisfied with El-Sayed as the Democratic nominee, with 61 percent satisfied, 29 percent not satisfied, and 10 percent not sure. On favorability, 39 percent of voters viewed El-Sayed favorably, while 44 percent held an unfavorable opinion, and 17 percent said they had no opinion or were unsure. Rogers posted similar ratings, with 37 percent of voters viewing him favorably, 42 percent unfavorably and 21 percent saying they had no opinion or were unsure.
Among the subset of 588 respondents who reported voting in the Democratic primary, 45 percent said they supported Stevens, while 43 percent backed El-Sayed. The poll was conducted from August 6 to 10 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points. TIPP has been recognized as one of the nation’s most accurate pollsters, having correctly predicted presidential elections in 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016.
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