The Cook Political Report has shifted two governor's races toward Democrats one week before midterm elections, with changes seen in Nebraska and Kansas—two Midwest states President Donald Trump won easily in the 2024 presidential election. According to the forecaster, the gubernatorial contest in Nebraska is shifting from likely Republican to lean Republican and the battle in Kansas is shifting from lean Republican to a toss-up. Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during them.
Trump won Kansas and Nebraska during the 2024 presidential election versus then-Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump's overall approval rating and ranking on specific policy issues like the economy, immigration, jobs and the ongoing war in Iran have recently slipped as households across America are consistently flagging affordability concerns. The polling lows come as Trump has crisscrossed the country in the lead-up to November 3 to rally for potentially vulnerable GOP candidates.
Newsweek reached out to Republican nominee Ty Masterson's campaign via Facebook and Democratic nominee Cindy Holscher's campaign in Kansas via email, along with Republican incumbent Jim Pillen's campaign in Nebraska via email on Tuesday night. Trump easily won the 2024 presidential election in Kansas with 57.2 percent of the vote compared to Harris' 41 percent, and in Nebraska, he secured 59.3 percent of the vote compared to Harris' 38.9 percent. In Kansas, Cook is shifting the gubernatorial race as the state's U.S.
Senate battle has become more competitive between Democrat Adam Hamilton and Republican Roger Marshall. Cook also cites internal polling from Holscher as a contributing reason. "Republicans still feel optimistic about flipping this race, and it remains their best takeover opportunity, but the volatility of the contest merits it being in a more competitive column," Cook notes in part in its report on Tuesday.
Masterson, who is backed by Trump, has been leading in a majority of polling over Holscher. Holscher reacted to Cook's report on X Tuesday, saying, "BREAKING NEWS: Cook Political Report has officially moved our race to a TOSS-UP! Despite over $20 million in spending against us, the momentum is clearly on our side.
All gas, no brakes." In Nebraska, Cook cites internal polling and a crowded ballot among the reasons behind shifting the race. Rick Beard is also running there as the Legal Marijuana Now Party candidate and Brett Lindstrom is competing with the America First Party. Pillen leads in a majority of recent polling and is also backed by Trump.
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