Democratic hopeful Abdul El-Sayed's lead over Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan's U.S. Senate race has widened, with a new poll giving the Democrat a boost six weeks before Election Day. According to a new poll from the Suffolk University Political Research Center released Monday, El-Sayed holds a 7-point lead over Republican Mike Rogers, the largest margin for the Democrat in September polling.
Four other candidates combined for 3 percent, while 8 percent of voters remained undecided and 3 percent declined to answer. The poll surveyed 500 likely voters in Michigan and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Newsweek has reached out to both campaigns for comment.
The Suffolk poll is the first in September to push El-Sayed's lead into the high single digits, with every other survey released since Labor Day showing him ahead by tighter margins. David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said El-Sayed's support among independent voters was a major factor in the poll. Paleologos also pointed to tariffs and data centers as factors in the race.
He said dissatisfaction with recent tariffs on Canada and opposition to the possibility of new data centers in Michigan had helped shift independent voters toward Democrats compared with 2024. Among voters who backed Donald Trump in 2024, Rogers leads El-Sayed 85 percent to 5 percent. Among Harris voters, El-Sayed leads 83 percent to 3 percent.
The numbers closely track Michigan's 2024 presidential vote, when Trump narrowly carried the state. Independents are a different story. El-Sayed leads Rogers 51 percent to 35 percent among them, making the bloc a key part of the race.
There is also a sharp gender divide: Rogers leads among men 50 percent to 37 percent, while El-Sayed leads among women 56 percent to 31 percent. The fault lines continue on union membership and gun ownership. El-Sayed leads 53 percent to 31 percent among union households, while the race is nearly even among non-union households, 45 percent to 44 percent.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
