Florida Democratic hopeful Angie Nixon plans to end a streak that has kept her party out of the U.S. Senate in the state since 2012, but the newest polling shows her facing a difficult path against GOP incumbent Ashley Moody. Nixon, a state representative and self-described progressive who had the backing of Representatives Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, had hoped the enthusiasm surrounding other Democratic Socialists of America candidates this cycle would carry over into her race.
The most recent polling shows a deficit similar to, and in some cases worse than, what every Democratic Senate nominee in the state has faced since Bill Nelson's last win. A Quantus Insights poll conducted September 8-10 has Moody leading Nixon 50 percent to 43 percent among 733 likely voters. More than 90 percent of decided respondents said they're locked in.
Moody leads every media market except Gainesville and Orlando/Daytona/Melbourne. Even in Jacksonville, Nixon's home base, Moody is up 58 percent to 38 percent. "In Moody, you have an incumbent that has won statewide previously, and who is also well funded," Alex Patton, a Florida-based Republican strategist, told Newsweek.
"The exact amount we can argue about, but she is the clear favorite." Asked about the gap between Nixon's numbers and the historical pattern of Florida polls undercounting Republicans, a Nixon campaign spokesperson argued the polling models themselves are the problem. "In recent cycles, the standard polling models have failed to account for non-traditional, populist campaigns like ours that mobilize disaffected, working-class voters and independents," the spokesperson said in response to questions from Newsweek. "The Angie Nixon campaign is building a broad, turnout-driven coalition in response to a status quo that doesn't work for hardworking people, and the most important poll of the cycle will be votes cast in November." Newsweek reached out to Moody's campaign for comment Tuesday.
The recent history offers both a warning and a precedent for Nixon. Florida Democrats came close to winning statewide in 2018, but the party's last two Senate nominees lost by double-digit margins. The last time a Democrat flipped the exact seat Nixon is seeking was 1986, when then-Governor Bob Graham defeated Republican incumbent Paula Hawkins.
Graham led by double digits for most of the campaign, including a 49-38 advantage in a July Miami Herald/Florida Times-Union poll and a lead as large as 22 points by early September. He won by 9.5 points, 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent. The next Democratic Senate flip came 14 years later, when Bill Nelson defeated Republican Bill McCollum 51-46 in 2000, even as George W.
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