In 2021, the Japanese government set out an ambitious plan for offshore wind: 10 gigawatts (GW) of power generation by 2030 and between 30 and 45 GW by 2040. According to one study published in Nature, resource-poor Japan has enough potential wind power to meet all domestic energy demand eight times over. Throughout 2021, the first auctions for offshore wind sites saw significant interest from Japanese and foreign developers alike, including Mitsubishi Corp. and Norway’s Orsted.
Five years later, progress has been slow. Only seven projects, with a total of 253.4 megawatts (MW), are operational so far, according to data from the Japan Wind Power Association. Many blame supply chain issues, including higher costs for raw materials.
Others point to failures by the government to properly incentivize developers. This is what led Mitsubishi to completely exit the field in mid-2025, abandoning three projects due to construction prices nearly doubling, in a massive blow to Japan’s offshore wind ambitions. But the loss of momentum for offshore wind is not just a matter of financing.
Concerns from fishers, environmentalists and local communities have also played a role, especially in Tohoku, Hokkaido and along the Sea of Japan coast, where most of Japan’s offshore wind resources lie. These groups have had projects suspended or delayed in Fukui, Shiga and Hokkaido prefectures and are raising concerns about other projects in Fukuoka and Shizuoka prefectures. Some see a potential role for technology.
In Hokkaido, at two wind farms near eagle habitats, Nvbird bird detection and monitoring systems are already showing potential promise in preventing harm to endangered birds. Another system, AI Bird, developed by the Japan Weather Association, integrates video, infrared data and radar sensors to develop turbine-specific bird maps and automatically adjust operations to reduce conflicts. As Japan looks to revive its offshore wind plans, addressing issues raised by environmentalists will be key in ensuring the rapid build-out needed to meet climate and energy demand goals.
It is, he added, an opportunity to “demonstrate innovation, collaboration and leadership.” For many experts, the only way Japan can meet both its Paris Agreement and 2050 net-zero plans is by rapidly expanding offshore wind. Moreover, extra capacity might be even more crucial due to the rapid build-out of energy-intensive data centers to power ever-more sophisticated artificial intelligence. In Tokyo, climate and energy organizations fear that any delays in expanding wind could open the door to the expanded use of fossil fuels, such as coal and natural gas, or controversial sources such as nuclear power, with far more worrying environmental impacts.
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