Iowa Republican Senate hopeful Ashley Hinson has a 2-point lead over Democrat rival Josh Turek according to the latest Emerson College survey, which puts her at 47 percent of the vote against 45 percent. Democrats hope to flip both chambers of Congress in November, a move that would greatly restrain President Trump’s ability to pass legislation during the final two years of his second term. Representative Hinson’s odds of defeating state Representative Turek have also improved markedly on prediction platform Polymarket, rising from 51 percent on September 23 to 57 percent on Friday.
It comes as Hinson appears to be trying to put some space between herself and President Trump, for example by calling for an end to the Iran war and releasing adverts praising bipartisan politics. A political scientist previously told Newsweek this is likely an effort to shield herself from Trump’s unpopularity in Iowa. Newsweek contacted the Hinson and Turek Senate campaigns for comment on Friday via email.
Emerson College polled 650 likely Iowa voters over October 5 to 6, finding 47 percent supported Hinson, R45 percent Turek, 2 percent Libertarian Party candidate Thomas Laehn, with another 7 percent saying they were undecided. The poll had a 3.8-point margin of error. A CNN/SSRS poll also gave Hinson a 2-point lead, with 45 percent of the vote against 43 percent for Turek.
This survey of 801 likely voters took place between September 29 and October 5, with a 4.2 percent point margin of error. By contrast, an earlier Marist University poll of 1,050 registered Iowa voters, conducted over September 17 to 20, gave Turek an 8-point lead with 50 percent of the vote to 42 percent for Hinson. This came with a 4.4-percentage-point margin of error.
On the prediction market website Polymarket, Hinson had a 57 percent chance of victory on October 9 against 44 percent for Turek. Due to rounding, the percentages don’t always add up to 100. https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/30514228/ By contrast, on September 23, Polymarket only gave Hinson a 51 percent chance of winning versus 50 percent for Turek. However, this was still significantly closer than at the end of April, when Hinson had a 61 percent chance of winning according to Polymarket compared to 40 percent for Turek.
Despite winning Iowa in 2024 for the third time in a row, with a 13-percentage-point margin, recent polling gives Trump a negative approval rating in the state. The October 5-6 Emerson College survey gave Trump a net rating of -9 in Iowa, with 42 percent approval against 51 percent disapproval. In recent weeks, Hinson has made a number of moves that put some distance between herself and the Trump administration.
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