Iowa has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator in nearly two decades. But as Democratic state Representative Josh Turek and Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson prepare to debate Wednesday night, the latest polling is putting a GOP-held seat within striking distance for Democrats to flip. A Suffolk University poll released Wednesday gives Turek a four-point advantage, while other recent surveys show a closely divided contest.
Prediction markets still narrowly favor Hinson, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding a race that could help determine control of the Senate. The contest to replace retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst offers Democrats a significant pickup opportunity in a state that has moved sharply right since Barack Obama’s presidential victories in 2008 and 2012. President Donald Trump easily carried Iowa three times, most recently by more than 13 points in 2024.
A Democratic Senate victory would mark a major departure from that recent trajectory. Newsweek reached out to Turek’s and Hinson’s campaigns for comment via email. The newest Suffolk University survey puts Turek at 48 percent and Hinson at 44 percent, with libertarian Thomas Laehn at about 2 percent.
The poll, conducted October 1–4 among 500 likely voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Suffolk’s previous August survey had Hinson ahead 45 percent to 41 percent. That reversal provides encouraging evidence for Democrats, although the latest result remains statistically close.
Suffolk also found Turek leading among independents, 58 percent to 30 percent. A New York Times/Siena University poll, conducted September 22–October 1 among 606 likely voters, showed Hinson ahead 48 percent to 47 percent. Its reported margin of error was plus or minus 4.6 points.
Quantus Insights, polling September 28–29, found Hinson at 47.1 percent and Turek at 45.8 percent on initial preference. Including undecided voters’ leanings brought them to 48.5 percent and 46.6 percent. The survey completed 738 interviews, and its analysis excluded 24 nonvoters.
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