Big 12 expert picks 2026: Most overrated and underrated teams, projected order of finish, bold predictions

The Big 12 hasn't had a repeat champion in five years, and only four current members have appeared in the conference championship game multiple times since it was reintroduced in 2017. Can Texas Tech become the first team in six years to repeat, or will another contender emerge in what has become the most unpredictable Power Four conference? Texas Tech enters the 2026 season as the clear favorite at -105 to win the Big 12 at FanDuel, the second-best odds of any team to win an FBS conference this preseason.

The Red Raiders have plenty working in their favor after winning their first outright conference championship since 1955 last season, but BYU (+500) has unfinished business after making its first appearance in the title game. The Cougars' only two losses in 2025 came against Texas Tech, including a 34-7 defeat in the championship game. Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and TCU are the only current Big 12 members with multiple appearances in the championship game since 2017.

Texas Tech and BYU joined that list of participants for the first time last season, while Utah (+900) and Houston (+1500) are among the leading contenders still looking for their first appearance. Four of the Big 12's most experienced coaches are gone, with Mike Gundy fired at Oklahoma State, Kyle Whittingham leaving Utah for Michigan, Matt Campbell departing Iowa State for Penn State and Chris Klieman retiring at Kansas State. So, can Texas Tech become the Big 12's first repeat champion since 2020?

Or is another surprise waiting around the corner? Here's how our experts see the Big 12 shaking out in 2026. Oklahoma State: With Oklahoma State, I just think it's a sheer fact: What exactly do they really have outside of the quarterback?

I know he'll be the rising tide that lifts all boats, but this team was so bad and so gutted that, if you're optimistic about it, you're basically saying that the North Texas import at some key positions (at all three levels of the defense, on the offensive line, and at the skill positions) will just work to be plug-and-play in a deep Big 12. I don't know that year one goes so swimmingly in Stillwater. -- Richard Johnson TCU: TCU must replace an awesome, productive quarterback in Josh Hoover, who led the Frogs to four one-score wins last season. Harvard transfer Jaden Craig could be an exciting replacement, but doing so with a new offensive coordinator, will he come up clutch in tight games?

Plus, Bud Clark's replacement at safety, transfer Jacob Fields, was just booted from the team. Buy the TCU under. -- Brandon Marcello (also John Talty) Utah: Utah has been one of the most consistent programs in the country for decades, maintaining a level of competence and excellence as it has moved through different conferences. But now Kyle Whittingham has left, and he's taken the team's offensive coordinator, as well as any player along the lines of scrimmage with eligibility remaining.