Democrats' midterm landslide did far more than reshape Congress. Victories across a series of statehouses may have opened a path to one of the most consequential changes to presidential elections in generations, potentially allowing the winner of the national popular vote to effectively determine who enters the White House in 2028. The possibility comes through the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC), an agreement that would require participating states to award their presidential electors to the winner of the nationwide popular vote once states representing at least 270 electoral votes have joined.
The compact currently encompasses 222 electoral votes, meaning another 48 would be needed before the pact could take effect, and the Democratic gains in state legislatures and governors' mansions this week have suddenly made reaching that threshold substantially more conceivable. "I cannot think of a single redeeming quality to the current system, which leaves four out of five voters on the sidelines when we elect the president," Patrick Rosenstiel, a senior consultant with National Popular Vote, which is advocating for the change, told Newsweek. "This includes Republicans like me in Minnesota and some of my Democratic friends in states like Oklahoma.
A national popular vote for president will make every voter, in every state politically relevant in every presidential election. It's what is best for state and local political parties, and it will prove very popular with voters in every state." The Electoral College would not necessarily have to be abolished for the candidate who wins the most votes nationwide to be guaranteed the presidency. Under the NPVIC, states agree to award their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote, rather than awarding them based on the result within their own borders.
The agreement only takes effect once participating states collectively control at least 270 electoral votes, the number needed to win the presidency. So far, 18 states and the District of Columbia have enacted the compact, accounting for 222 electoral votes and leaving supporters 48 votes shy of the threshold. The midterm elections could substantially change the political arithmetic.
"The five new trifecta states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada—have 61 Electoral College votes altogether," Steven Rogers, a political-science professor at Saint Louis University, told Newsweek Wednesday. "If each agrees to the Compact, it could effectively establish a national popular vote for the presidency." The five states highlighted as potential additions to the compact together account for 61 electoral votes. Adding all five would bring the compact to 283, comfortably above the 270 threshold.
New Hampshire, with another four electoral votes, has also been identified by the National Popular Vote campaign as a potentially promising state. Crucially, supporters would not need every single new state to get on board, with various combinations of the group able to push the plan over the line. The consequences for a presidential election could be dramatic.
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