Flávio Bolsonaro, a Brazilian Senator and ally of US President Donald Trump, and Brazil’s incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will face off in a runoff on the 25th of October 5 for the top job of Latin America’s powerhouse economy after neither won a majority in Sunday's presidential vote. The country’s electoral court in the capital Brasilia said neither the 80-year-old incumbent, seeking his fourth non-consecutive term, nor the 45-year-old son to embattled former President Jair Bolsonaro garnered the majority vote needed for an outright win. The court had Bolsonaro with just over 56 million votes while Brazilian political veteran Lula sat at around 53.7 million.
The data was announced after local election officials reported 99.8% of the votes counted for the country’s next presidential term, set to begin 5 January. The winner will be in charge of South America’s biggest economy and a population of 214 million. A win for Bolsonaro would increase US influence in the country, while a win for Lula would likely continue to distance Brasilia from Washington and instead deepen its ties with China.
Flávio Bolsonaro addressed the press and a small group of supporters, including some wearing green and yellow Brazil jerseys and one woman wrapped in the Israeli flag, outside his Brasilia house. Lula, seeking to be encouraging ahead of an uphill battle to beat Bolsonaro in the upcoming runoff, said the result was “unexpected” as he had thought he could win in the first round. We will see who has the best plan.” Both Lula and Bolsonaro will have three weeks to reach moderate voters who did not support them in the first round.
Augusto Cury, a writer who finished in third place with 3.4 million votes, said he would not endorse either in the runoff. Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, two candidates who garnered about 5.3 million votes combined on Sunday, have previously said the same. In the campaign ahead, Lula is expected to try to capitalise on the popularity of his social policies and his rival’s many legal woes.
While the once widely popular Lula saw his approval ratings plummet during his third term, standing up to the US gave him a boost. He still enjoys a strong base of supporters who credit his social policies for improving millions of Brazilians’ lives. But the incumbent faces a tough battle because of an affordability crisis and a corruption scandal that ensnared the same Supreme Court justice who led the investigation into his rival Jair Bolsonaro, and subjected him to house arrest following his conviction of plotting a coup to subvert democracy after the last presidential election.
Justice Alexandre de Moraes is accused of having been in contact with disgraced banker and head of the Banco Master financial institution, Daniel Vorcaro, who had messaged him several times seeking legal advice. Both candidates face image problems; Roughly half of Brazil’s population disapproves of the Bolsonaro family, and the other half disapprove of Lula’s Workers' Party, according to multiple polls. Four years ago, Lula beat then incumbent Jair Bolsonaro by about 2.1 million votes.
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