Cancer cases are set to soar globally over the coming decades as the world's population grows and people live longer. A major new analysis led by researchers at the American Cancer Society (ACS) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer, the cancer agency of the World Health Organization, estimates that annual global cancer cases could climb from almost 21 million in 2024 to about 34 million by 2050. That would represent a 67 percent increase.
The study, published in CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians, paints a stark picture of the growing burden of cancer worldwide. Researchers estimate that roughly one in five people will develop cancer during their lifetime, while about one in nine men and one in 13 women will die from the disease. Importantly, the projected increase is driven by population growth and aging rather than a sudden change in cancer biology.
As more people live into older age, the number of cancer diagnoses is expected to rise because cancer becomes more common as people age. "The projected 67 percent increase reflects a larger, older population," Aneel Paulus, a physician-scientist working in translational oncology and cancer prevention, told Newsweek. "It doesn't mean everyone's personal cancer risk is rising by two-thirds." The analysis drew on data from GLOBOCAN, a global cancer database covering 34 cancer types across 186 countries and territories.
Researchers examined differences in cancer incidence and mortality around the world and used demographic projections to estimate future trends. While the forecasts are concerning, the researchers stressed that 48 percent of cancer deaths could be prevented. Paulus said the prevention findings deserve as much attention as the projected rise in cancer cases.
"We can make substantial progress with tools we already have," he said. "More people need access to tobacco cessation, cancer-preventing vaccines, and appropriate screening, with follow-up when something is found." The report highlights major geographic disparities in cancer outcomes. Cancer incidence rates varied roughly four- to fivefold between regions, while mortality rates differed by about twofold.
Australia and New Zealand recorded some of the highest cancer incidence rates, while several regions in Africa and South-Central Asia recorded among the lowest. Lung cancer remained the most commonly diagnosed cancer globally and the leading cause of cancer death in 2024. Researchers recorded nearly 2.6 million new lung cancer cases and 1.9 million deaths, with tobacco use continuing to be the primary driver.
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