China’s diplomatic calendar this year reflects its growing international weight. A succession of prominent leaders has travelled to Beijing, including those from the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, Canada, Spain, South Korea, Pakistan and Jordan. The recent visit by Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani to China, as well as visits by high-level officials from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia earlier this year, confirm Beijing’s expanding role in the Gulf.
The region, which has traditionally aligned with the US, is seeing growing competition between the two powers. But this rivalry does not mean that China is seeking to replace the US. It is approaching the region through trade and technology – something that fits into the Gulf’s own economic and development interests.
The US remains the Gulf’s most important external military partner. Its defence partnerships, intelligence ties, weapons systems, naval capabilities, and military presence remain central to regional security. For years, Washington has measured Chinese influence against its own military power.
By those standards, China remains far from being able to replace the US. But that is the wrong measure of strategic success. China has shown little interest in competing with the US on military reach in the Gulf.
That is because it has benefitted directly from the security Washington has provided in the region. For decades, the US Navy helped secure maritime routes through which Gulf energy reached Asian markets. US military power in the Gulf region contributed to the stability that allowed Chinese companies to trade, invest, build infrastructure, and purchase energy.
From the Chinese perspective, this arrangement cost little and delivered significant returns. Replacing the US security system would mean assuming the political, financial and military costs of becoming the Gulf’s security guarantor, which would not be in its interest. Instead, China has concentrated on sectors where it can build economic leverage, seeking to become as important to Gulf states’ economies as Washington is in the region’s security architecture.
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