This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: Coastal flooding may seem unpredictable, a natural disaster that occurs randomly. But UCF researcher Ivan Haigh has found that recurrent coastal floods occur at highly predictable times.
In a recent study published in Nature Communications, Haigh and a team of international researchers show that coastal flooding tends to occur at certain times of day, reflecting the timing of the tides. While previous research has largely focused on the seasonal timing of river and coastal flooding, this is the first study to show that floods with impacts have predictable daily timing across regions. "Floods have traditionally been viewed as primarily weather-driven and therefore relatively unpredictable in their exact timing," Haigh says.
"But surprisingly little attention has been paid to what hour of the day flooding occurs. Another reason is the way we measure flooding. We commonly talk about the number of 'flood days' per year.
Once an event is reduced to a flood day, the information about whether the flooding happened at 3 a.m., 8 a.m. or 3 p.m. disappears." Using tide gauge data and flood event records from the U.S. and the United Kingdom, the researchers found clear patterns in when floods occur. For example, in Boston, floods occur predominantly around noon and midnight, while in Southern California, they are more common in the morning. In Florida, the timing can vary along the coastline because the tides differ from location to location.
Along the Atlantic Coast and down toward the Florida Keys, coastal flooding is moderately predictable, but along the Gulf Coast, flooding is less predictable. Haigh says tides largely determine that predictability. "In many locations, tides determine whether storm surge is sufficient to push water levels above flood thresholds," Haigh says.
"As a result, even storm-driven flooding often inherits the timing of the tides." The researchers also found that this phenomenon isn't unique to locations that experience semidiurnal tides, which consist of two high tides and two low tides each day. It also happens in places with diurnal tidal systems, with one high tide and one low tide per day, because of the way different tidal signals interact. As sea levels continue to rise, Haigh says coastal flooding is increasingly occurring without storms, making his findings more significant.
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