Democrats are entering the final stretch of the midterm campaign with numbers that look almost too good to be true. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, has declared that his party has "the wind in our sails." House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, also a New York Democrat, told reporters on Sunday that they "are poised to take back the majority." Democratic Senate candidates now lead polling averages from Texas to Alaska, and in states President Donald Trump carried two years ago. But for many inside the party, the confidence comes with a warning attached.
Midterms are, of course, a different contest. Voter turnout changes, Trump is not on the ballot, and history tends to favor the party out of power. Democrats are leading Republicans in almost every generic congressional ballot average.
Still, with fewer than four weeks until Election Day and early voting already underway, Democratic leaders, strategists, and veterans of past wave elections are cautioning against the kind of overconfidence they say hurt the party last time. "I will tell you that the antidote to overconfidence is the [20]24 election," Former North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp told Newsweek. "People saw this in 24 and said it's not over till it's over." Heitkamp, a Democrat who lost her reelection bid in the 2018 wave, believes the defeat itself is what will keep her party from repeating it, but warned Democrats against reading too much into their lead.
"I think that the Democrats shouldn't get too cozy about saying that people are selecting the Democratic Party," she said. "I think they're rejecting the party of Donald Trump." The Cook Political Report, widely considered the gold standard for nonpartisan race ratings, moved 18 House races toward Democrats last week. Party officials privately expect Democrats to win back the House, and the Senate, once seen as safer terrain for Republicans, now looks like a tossup.
But some top Democrats are less sure the polls can be trusted. Former President Barack Obama warned donors at a fundraiser for Senate Democrats on Wednesday that narrow leads could evaporate. "All these races that are showing we've got a two- or three-point lead or it's a tossup, we could end up losing all of them by two points," Obama said.
"It's within the margin of error." The House may be slipping out of reach for Republicans, but the Senate is still up for grabs. The GOP holds a 53-47 majority, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. A 50-50 split would leave Vice President JD Vance with the tie-breaking vote.
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