Democrats enter the final weeks of the 2026 midterms with favorable tailwinds as voters sour on President Donald Trump, but polls suggest the party may not be matching its national momentum in New York, the state that experienced the nation’s largest rightward shift in 2024. With less than four weeks until the November 3 midterm elections, Democrats are expanding their lead nationally and are working to expand the electoral battleground to compete in more conservative states like Alaska, Iowa, Kansas and Texas. But two recent surveys have produced underwhelming results for Democrats in New York, long seen as a major progressive stronghold, raising questions about whether the "blue wave” will manifest itself in the Empire State.
As Democrats expand their lead on the national generic ballot, that has not translated into gains in New York, with recent polls showing Democrats up between 11 and 13 points in the state. The polls could signal a worrying trend for New York Democrats. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won the state by fewer than 13 points in 2024, down from former President Joe Biden’s 23-point victory in 2020.
No other state saw a larger jump to the right in the most recent presidential race. The trend was driven by Trump’s inroads among Hispanic and Asian American voters, as well as more stagnant suburbs outside of New York City. That rightward shift also showed up further down the ballot, with Democrats winning the generic congressional vote by 15 points, down from 24 points in 2020, according to SplitTicket.
Boris Heersink, a political science professor at Fordham University, told Newsweek that if Trump’s 2024 coalition lasted in New York, it could “produce an environment where a particularly appealing Republican could do well” in the state. But he also said that does not “seem to be the most likely outcome.” “I don't think the current polls suggest a long-term trend away from the Democrats. What I think is clear is that the era where Democrats were completely dominating New York in the 2010s is over,” he said.
Recent polling data suggest Democrats are struggling to rebuild their dominance in New York politics, even in a more favorable environment ahead of the midterm elections, though it could ultimately come down to how undecided voters break between now and November 3. These polls still give Democrats a statewide advantage. Democrats led Republicans on the generic ballot by only 13 points, 55 percent to 42 percent, in a new Marist University poll of New York registered voters.
Meanwhile, in the gubernatorial race, Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul led her Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, by only 11 points, 53 percent to 42 percent. The poll surveyed 1,361 registered voters from October 1 to 4 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. Just weeks earlier, a Siena University poll produced similarly concerning results for Democrats.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
