Democrats are mounting competitive Senate and gubernatorial campaigns in several states that President Donald Trump carried by double-digit margins in the 2024 presidential election. The competitive contests in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas have raised questions about whether Republicans, who hold both the House and Senate majorities, face mounting political headwinds ahead of the 2026 midterms and whether Democrats can capitalize on them. Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, told Newsweek that "presidential approval and the state of the economy are both strong predictors to outcomes in congressional races in midterms.
The president's sagging rating on both of these metrics are making races in these states more competitive than we'd expect.” Trump's approval ratings have raised concerns among some Republicans as the party heads into the 2026 midterms. Nationally, 35 percent of voters approve of Trump's job performance while 59 percent disapprove as of August 27, leaving him significantly underwater with a net approval rating of -24, according to Civiqs' rolling online tracking poll of registered voters. The survey has garnered 126,377 responses since January 20, 2025, when Trump was inaugurated for a second term.
An August 25 Economist/YouGov poll found 35 percent of Americans approved of the president's job performance, with a net approval rating of -26. Compared to a similar poll during the same point in his first term, his net approval rating was -9 and former Democratic President Joe Biden’s -12. Aggregators like RealClearPolitics show Trump with a 40 percent approval rating and 57 percent disapproval, while the Silver Bulletin puts his approval rating at 38 percent.
A new Strength in Numbers/Verasight poll fielded August 14-19, which surveyed 1,514 U.S. adults ages 18 and older, found Trump underwater on all 12 issues it tracks, as border security—his last positive rating—slipped to −5. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.6 percent. Alex Patton, owner of strategic public affairs firm Ozean Media, told Newsweek via email that the current climate is not a result of just one factor; rather it is being driven by a “toxic soup of mega-trends of economic factors, inflation, gas prices, grocery prices, the job market, the President's record-low approval numbers (especially with Independents), the quagmire in Iran, and, in some cases, terrible candidates.” He described the current political environment as “terrible, gawd-awful” for the GOP, “with maybe the only win being the stock market, and the stock market is not the economy.” Hans Noel, a professor of government at Georgetown University, told Newsweek that “Trump has involved himself even more in the midterms, so voters are even less likely to not think of him when they vote.” Trump won the 2024 election against then-Vice President Kamala Harris, securing 312 Electoral College votes to Harris' 226 and winning the national popular vote.
Trump carried 31 states overall, including 24 by double-digit margins, and clinched all the swing states. His margins among the states he won by double digits ranged from Ohio, which he won by 11.2 percentage points, to deeply Republican Wyoming, where he won by 45.8 points. Other states he won by double digits included Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee and West Virginia.
Republicans also regained control of the Senate in 2024, flipping Democratic-held seats and securing a majority in the chamber, while maintaining control of the House of Representatives. At the state level, Republicans entered 2025 holding a majority of governorships nationwide. Political experts note that losses by the party controlling the White House are common in midterm elections.
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