While races for Congress or governors' mansions may dominate the airwaves, some of the most competitive and significant contests are farther down the ballot. More than 6,100 seats are up for election in state legislatures, which make most of the laws on education, taxes, reproductive rights, crime and social media access, among other things. "The fact of the matter is the day in, day out basis, state governments, state lawmakers, state governors have a greater impact on our everyday lives than what takes place in Washington D.C.," said John Kennedy, a political science professor at West Chester University in Pennsylvania.
Republicans control the legislature in 28 states, while Democrats have control of 18 legislatures. The remaining four are divided or run under power-sharing deals. Committees for both national parties are picking their races to promote, with Democrats trying to seize on the anti-incumbent mood and low popularity of President Trump.
"By taking advantage of this once-in-a-generation opportunity and environment to build power, we can capture new majorities," said the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee in listing its target districts around the country. The Republican State Leadership Committee acknowledged in an April strategy memo that 2026 poses, "a political environment that is likely to be one of the most challenging for state Republicans in recent years." It said it's taking a "defensive-first posture" to hold onto seats already held by the GOP. Democrats are pouring millions of dollars into trying to flip Republican-held chambers in several states, especially Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.
That would give some Democratic governors greater power to pass their policy priorities or let Democrats block GOP initiatives. For example, in Arizona Republicans hold a four-seat majority in the state Senate and a six-seat advantage in the House of Representatives, giving Democrats a chance to take one or both chambers. If they take both, Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs, if she wins re-election, would have an easier time implementing blocked efforts, such as rolling back school vouchers and appointing agency leaders.
In other states, Democrats are simply looking to reduce Republican power or break the supermajorities that prevent Democratic governors from vetoing their bills, like in North Carolina and Kansas (if Democrats hold the governor's office there). The potential for a party shift may be the most pronounced in Pennsylvania, where Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, is in a constant policy battle with a split legislature where Democrats hold a slim majority in the state House but Republicans hold a four-seat majority in the Senate.
Democrats have not won a trifecta – full control of the state's executive and legislative branches – in more than 30 years. It could come down to the results of a few close state Senate races in the Philadelphia suburbs. The incumbent Shapiro, running for re-election, is already making a list of what he hopes to accomplish "in the first 30 days" if that happens.
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