Democrats’ strategy of supporting independents in traditionally conservative states, rather than running their own candidate, faces a reckoning in this year’s midterms, as difficult headwinds for Republicans will test the appetite for these independents in states President Donald Trump carried by large margins. Over the years, Democrats have declined to run a candidate in certain Senate races when they believed an independent could be able to make the race competitive in states that are generally hostile to Democrats. For instance, Democrats rallied behind independent candidates in Senate races in Nebraska in 2024, Utah in 2022, Alaska in 2020 and Kansas in 2014.
These independents performed relatively well, putting up stronger performances than Democrats generally do in those states. However, they still fell short of a victory, with Republicans winning each of those races. But this year could be different, Democrats hope.
The national environment appears to be less favorable for Republicans as Trump’s national approval rating has slipped due to voter frustration with the cost-of-living and the economy. The president’s polling falling to record lows has also fueled Democrats’ optimism that they may be able to compete in more Republican-leaning states. But there will be no Democrats on the ballot for the Senate races in Idaho, Nebraska and South Dakota.
Instead, Democrats are backing independent candidates Todd Achilles, Dan Osborn and Brian Bengs in those three states. The strategy was “born of Democratic frustration in deep red states,” Stephen Farnsworth, political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, told Newsweek. He said if the strategy was ever going to work for Democrats, it would be in this year's midterms, when “Republicans must endure the reality of a deeply unpopular president who promised two years ago to lower prices and avoid international entanglements—and did neither.” “If the independent strategy doesn't work this year, it might not be worth trying again,” Farnsworth added.
The Senate races in Idaho, Nebraska and South Dakota will test the viability of this strategy used by Democrats. Of the three races, only Nebraska is seen as competitive by the Cook Political Report, which classifies it as "Lean Republican," while the other two contests are viewed as "Solid Republican." Democrats also hoped to deploy the strategy in Montana, a state that has elected some Democrats in recent history despite its Republican lean. Many Democrats called on the party to support independent Seth Bodnar, rather than run their own candidate, but Democrat Alani Bankhead declined to drop out of the race, leaving it as a three-way contest where Republicans remain favored.
The thought process behind the strategy is that in these solidly conservative states, a Democrat is generally unlikely to win, but an independent may be able to build a coalition of Democrats, independents and more moderate Republicans that may be more competitive in the state, though it has not necessarily worked in recent history. But these independent candidates emphasize that they’re not Democrats. None have said they would caucus with Democrats and have cast themselves as true independents who align with both parties on certain issues.
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