Donald Trump has spent a decade demonstrating the extraordinary power of political spectacle. He has won two terms in office, reshaped an entire party, and achieved feats his opponents believed impossible. Whatever his critics thought of him, the effectiveness of his methods couldn't be dismissed.
Trumpism is finally facing the cumulative consequences of its own design: relentless self-promotion, a refusal to admit mistakes, an inability to distinguish attention from trust, and an increasingly conspicuous gap between the victories he announces and the reality Americans experience. Ahead of the midterms, things are not looking good for the president or his party. The most recent /Ipsos poll found Trump’s approval rating had fallen to just 31 percent among American adults—the lowest of either presidential term.
Democrats lead Republicans by 12 points, 47 to 35 percent, among registered voters asked which party they would support for Congress. But it doesn’t really matter which party emerges victorious in November; the commander-in-chief is already a lame duck. Not because he has lost the formal powers of his office, but because the political formula that made him so formidable is yielding increasingly diminishing returns.
Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025 with a demolition crew’s enthusiasm for government. He signed 46 executive orders during his first month in the Oval Office, overturning Biden-era policies on immigration, energy and the federal workforce, and pressing congressional Republicans to move at his pace. Whether one admired the agenda or feared it, the speed and sheer scale of his opening offensive were unquestionable.
That initial frenzy began to subside over the following months. Trump signed 30 executive orders in February 2025, 33 in March and 34 in April. By June 2025, it was nine, and October 2025 recorded a solitary signature.
The slowdown persisted into 2026: five in April and May, and just two in July; though September saw him put pen to paper 11 times. Admittedly, the frequency of executive orders is a blunt measure of any president’s political efficacy. They are often front-loaded to reverse the work of predecessors, or piled in the weeks and days before leaving office.
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